Monday, August 9, 2010

NatGas Production increases, but demand also increases.

At first glance the following graph looks very bad for natgas. Production is skyrocketing and the future looks grim.
While the production increases appear to be able to overwhelm everything, there is hope.
The demand has really increased.
Specifically, the industrial demand has skyrocketed.

This is a dramatic and important increase in demand. First, the demand is constant year-around industrial demand. This is not the seasonal demand, but demand during ALL times of the year. Second, the numbers are the average of 6 months of data. This is not a one time event, but an increase in the 6-month average demand for natgas from industrial users. Third, the increase is crazy, considering the economy is still in deep trouble. Realize demand is now 3 bcf a day HIGHER than the highest point EVER reached. Industrial demand has skyrocketed EVEN in one of the worst economic slumps the economy has experienced. What will happen if we ever get a boom? What will the industrial demand look like when the unemployment rate falls to 5%??!?!

Thus, while the supply of natgas looks to be overwhelming, the market is picking up the fact that natgas is cheap. Companies are switching sources of energy to natgas. This will not be fast, but industrial demand is more constant year-around demand than heating demand.

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