Friday, August 27, 2010

Is Helicopter Ben out of fuel?

In his most recent speech Ben B. highlights three policy tools the fed has:
"Policy Options for Further Easing
Notwithstanding the fact that the policy rate is near its zero lower bound, the Federal Reserve retains a number of tools and strategies for providing additional stimulus. I will focus here on three that have been part of recent staff analyses and discussion at FOMC meetings: (1) conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities, (2) modifying the Committee's communication, and (3) reducing the interest paid on excess reserves. I will also comment on a fourth strategy, proposed by several economists--namely, that the FOMC increase its inflation goals."

So let's look at the impact of each of these:
1) Buy more longer-term securities. While this might have the impact of lowering the long term rates, what good will that do? So what if rates go from 4.50 to 4.25 for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage? Does anyone think a small change in long-term rates is going to turn housing around?
The simple fact is this policy tool has limited value for increasing economic activity.

2) Communication.
Translate they can promise rates won't rise for like forever. Talk. Talk. Talk. A change in the committee can change that real fast. In addition, people are not buying houses because they expect interest rates to rise. While the Fed can change economic activity with talk at times (for example if they took out the extended rate provision the economy would tank further), at this point changes in the language are unlikely to INCREASE economic activity.

3) Reduce interest rates on balances at the Fed. Big deal. They only pay 25bps right now. Unless they move that to negative amounts (which he says will not happen in the speech), this change will have minor if any impact on the economy.

Summary: Helicopter Ben is out of fuel. The Fed has no more policy options that seem to make any sense. They don't have much ability to jump-start the economy. This is really bad news for the economy.

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