Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Robry's Supply Numbers BACK!

They show that production has clearly bounced off a low. The question is will the production start falling after the new year?
Why? Because there is always a STRONG seasonal bounce of production in Nov/Dec and with the shut-ins it would be very strong this year. In other words, the low of production was overstated since some of the decrease of production was voluntary. Likewise the current rebound in production, while real, is also overstated because of the shut-ins (Usually you get a higher rate of production for a short period of time after a well is shut-in).

The results for early Jan should be a good measure to see if production has really started to climb or if this rise is temporary.


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