Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Feb 24th Update of the Robry Chart

The following chart has several updates.
1) The chart has the latest Robry data and additional data in the past.
2) The chart has Valueconscious' data (with his blessing of course) for NG Horizontal Rig count.
While the data is short, it should be very interesting over time to see the two series.

Luckily, the numbers from both series are currently in the 400-600 range, so they easily fit on the same chart.



Notice that the production levels of natural gas, while at record levels are not that much higher than the past. A 50 bcf/week difference between last year and this year is important, but not as big as I expected. With a 30% decline rate, natural gas production could easily fall by 50 bcf/week. The key is natural gas is a flow. If the flow is even a little above the demand, storage will rise quickly. But the reverse is also true. With the credit being limited and cash flow down at all E&P companies, the flow can drop quickly.

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