Monday, March 14, 2011

Updated Nat Gas Charts

The charts show the clear fall in natural gas production from the crazy highs in December. The high decline rates on the shales and horizontal wells are often forgotten. While the amount of gas in the fields is huge, getting the gas out is going to be costly. Why? The number of wells drilled has to increase at increasing rates. This exponential growth in drilling starts to run into all kinds of constraints from pipelines to frac fluids. In addition, oil is over $100 a barrel, which means it is more economic to drill for oil than nat gas. I am becoming more and more bullish on nat gas.


Monday, February 7, 2011

New Gas Production Chart


The following chart is a new type of gas production chart. The North American Market is both the US and Canada production. So I took the daily production estimate from Roby and Gasguy and added them together. Then I averaged the past 7 days (line 1) and the past 30 days (line 2). While you do not see the daily changes, the lines have plenty of volatility. Note the most recent decrease in production, in part caused by cold weather.