Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
NatGas Charts Updated.
The production fell back and the end of the week was the lowest daily levels. But the drilling rigs continue to increase. This is not good news for the price of natgas, but great news for customers.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
North American Production Even
With the supply of Natgas in the US increasing for the week, the bears are yelping. But in Canada, the supply decreased by more than the increase in the US. The net result for the integrated market was near zero. The low prices of natgas are having a dramatic impact on production----in Canada. But the US and Canadian markets are one market. WIth the large pipelines from Canada, the production in Canada can be sold in New York City. But Canadian production is both important (large) and decreasing. The real story is the shift of production from Canada to the US Shale plays.
If price continues at the current level, the production of conventional natgas in Canada will continue to fall. Right now the impact of the fall is being moderated by the large storage overhang in both the US and Canada. When the Canadian storage overhang is eaten through, the full impact of the lower production will be felt. The bears may face a severe shock at the magnitude of the problem.
If price continues at the current level, the production of conventional natgas in Canada will continue to fall. Right now the impact of the fall is being moderated by the large storage overhang in both the US and Canada. When the Canadian storage overhang is eaten through, the full impact of the lower production will be felt. The bears may face a severe shock at the magnitude of the problem.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Robry's Supply Numbers BACK!
They show that production has clearly bounced off a low. The question is will the production start falling after the new year?
Why? Because there is always a STRONG seasonal bounce of production in Nov/Dec and with the shut-ins it would be very strong this year. In other words, the low of production was overstated since some of the decrease of production was voluntary. Likewise the current rebound in production, while real, is also overstated because of the shut-ins (Usually you get a higher rate of production for a short period of time after a well is shut-in).
The results for early Jan should be a good measure to see if production has really started to climb or if this rise is temporary.
Why? Because there is always a STRONG seasonal bounce of production in Nov/Dec and with the shut-ins it would be very strong this year. In other words, the low of production was overstated since some of the decrease of production was voluntary. Likewise the current rebound in production, while real, is also overstated because of the shut-ins (Usually you get a higher rate of production for a short period of time after a well is shut-in).
The results for early Jan should be a good measure to see if production has really started to climb or if this rise is temporary.
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