Recently the economy of the United States has started to slow. After a really bad recession, this is not good news.
Exports are strong.
Loan losses are starting to fall.
But look at the demand for mortgage loans:
The Initial Claims for employment are spiking up:
Covered Employment is still not responding:
What's more the Money Multiplier is now FALLING after a really bad fall during the recession.
So what is doing well?
From this chart we see gasoline is the largest increase in retail sales, which is not a good thing for the economy.
By having gasoline prices rising, we see a 'tax' on the consumer that is zapping the recovery of the economy.
Overall, the economy is at best sputtering. At worst, we are headed to a double dip. Because the fiscal policy and monetary policy are about to take the 'gas' off in June, this summer looks to be very dicey. Don Coxe has described Quantitive Easing (which the FED has been doing) as 'heroin' for the economy. When you pull the heroin, you will get some violent reactions. This summer may be a very bumpy ride and I expect the stock market to fall as the monetary policy ends.
