Robry's Supply Numbers Updated

Please Note Older Weeks have been adjusted to updated data in Robry's data.

Rigs keep falling- When will production crash?

Nat Gas Employment a better predictor of Production?

While the rig count gives some information about production, the total employment in the sector gives even better information. Specifically, there is a 85.9% correlation between the monthly total production of natural gas and the employment in the sector.
While I have yet to get the chart perfect, the chart below shows that as employment falls, production falls and as employment increases the production increases. This study is still in it's early stages, so comments are welcome.

Production is slowing declining.

As I suspected a couple of weeks ago, a major pipeline has been activated. Robry recently confirmed this with: "Major new pipeline (TXG Fayetteville lateral @ Lula, MS.) began scheduling flows 04/03/09. " This new pipeline jumped production higher and as a result, the link between drilling and production is delayed. Some are suggesting the cause of the increase was completions. While they are holding up production, only a new major infrastructure work would have caused this most recent increase in production.

Fewer H Nat Gas Rigs

Increase in Rigs and Production: Bearish for NG

Uptick in Production- Updated Robry Chart